It’s mission mode for India’s Opposition. And the aim is singular – to dethrone Narendra Modi! Shared podiums and determinations, all unified in the belief that Modi must go for the “idea of India” to breathe free again. The dichotomy of their respective political realities has been set aside as they embrace each other and resolve to beat the BJP in the Lok Sabha polls.
And it’s such a sight when the near impossible manifests itself as something as natural as seeing these battle-hardened netas move on the chess board to emerge as the natural choice – at least the most preferred one – to be next prime minister of India.
While there are many who could make the cut, at least for perception’s sake, let’s delve into the notion of who tops the rankings. A lot is cooking in the great urn called India’s democracy… but who will emerge as the winner – if Modi falls?
Mayawati
To be India’s first Dalit PM is an ambition she has nurtured for long and Behenji has been working with precision to ensure that it becomes a reality in 2019. There are many factors that go in her favour. The fact that her party has a growing presence in the Hindi belt – the BSP won 6 seats in Rajasthan and 2 in UP – along with her ability to stitch up electoral alliances with the likes of JDS in Karnataka and INLD in Haryana, make her much more acceptable than other regional satraps gunning for the top post.
In her home turf Uttar Pradesh, Mayawati achieved the near impossible by stitching up an alliance with Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party. While it’s not for the first time that they have come together, the sheer timing of the current round of bonhomie is crucial, as is the shrewd calculation with which they have kept the Congress out of the coalition, suggesting that the game is being set for the throne in Delhi.
Though Akhilesh did not openly support – (in 2014 he was the man behind the call to make Mulayam the PM) - his own father as his choice for PM this time around, the young Yadav did assert that the next Prime Minister will be from Uttar Pradesh.
Mamata Banerjee
Mamata (or Didi, as she is popularly called) has gone all out to cobble up support for her endeavour to be the face of the Opposition in 2019. She recently held a mega rally in Kolkata which saw the likes of Sharad Pawar, Chandrababu Naidu, MK Stalin, Hemant Soren, Arvind Kejriwal, and even the likes of Hardik Patel and Jignesh Mewani witness her doggedness towards the mission to trounce Modi – and possibly be the next prime minister of India.
She is also playing, like Mayawati… setting up the game in a manner where neither the BJP nor the Congress can form a government on their own. Her calculation rests on a situation where the Congress falls markedly short of the magic figure – thereby losing its natural claim to be the leader of the united force against the BJP.
What Mamata lacks in terms of the reach of the Dalit vote that Mayawati enjoys, she is trying to make up for it by the brute force being provided by her backers – at least that’s what she would like to believe at this juncture.
Rahul Gandhi
While Congressmen have always considered him to be part of the big game, in reality, Rahul Gandhi has really entered the metaphorical ring only after his party trounced the BJP in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan. The victories came at an opportune time for him and his party, even though it has not gone unnoticed that besides Chhattisgarh, the Congress could not generate the kind of anti-incumbency vote that one would have expected either in MP or in Rajasthan, despite the states having seen a saffron rule of 10-15 years.
But Rahul enjoys strong support from some key players. DMK’s MK Stalin was among the first to offer his support for Rahul as PM, the JDS will also back Rahul as quid pro quo for the support his son HD Kumaraswamy enjoys in Bengaluru. And then there is the Mahagathbandhan with the RJD in Bihar. In Maharashtra, while Rahul will gain strength from the tie-up with the NCP, the actual contours of the alliance will decide how much of a gain can he expect from the western state. Maharashtra has 48 Lok Sabha seats.
A good showing by the NCP will put its boss Sharad Pawar in the race for PM as well. However, the way Mayawati joined hands with his old friend Akhilesh to keep him out of the stakes in UP and also Mamata's invite to his bête noire Sonia Gandhi to the Kolkata rally and not him, presents a picture of uncertainty for his candidature to the PM's post.