Even as the Indian Premier League (IPL) media rights auction pits cricket's two giant broadcasters - Star India and Sony Pictures Network - against each other in a fierce number-crunching battle, it is not these two potentially high-profile bidders sweating at the prospect or the eventual outcome.
Instead, as the run-up to August 28 - day of bid submissions - gains momentum, it is cricket boards across the world sweating in anticipation of a mow down.
The India rights for the eagerly awaited India's tour of England in the next English summer of 2018, followed by India's tour of Australia that may include the Boxing Day Test among privileges to be factored in, haven't yet been picked by any broadcaster yet.
These two cricket properties - considered major simply because India happens to be touring - are only the tip of the global cricket rights iceberg that stand to take a severe beating going forward if the bid for the IPL media rights crashes beyond the US$ 3bn (approx Rs 20,000 CR) next month.
"If this is the kind of money being projected for IPL, what will happen to the other boards' rights on the international calendar? Those rights fees will crash by anywhere between 30 to 50%," say those tracking the broadcast rights industry.
Here's a logic that cuts ice, given the present market proposition: Between Star and Sony, the two broadcasters happen to control 90% of the mild television market in cricket. If either party bids around or in excess of US$ 3bn, it will not have the need nor the resources to further go around looking for overseas rights. It will then be for the other party - which hasn't picked the IPL rights - to squeeze boards, Cricket Australia (CA) and the England & Wales Cricket Board (ECB) for instance - at the value the broadcaster deems fit.
"Everyone, the broadcasters and even these cricket boards are waiting for IPL rights to be confirmed before any such negotiations can begin. But believe me, if IPL bids hit the roof, there won't be space for any such negotiation," says an industry executive.
It is perhaps for this reason that any broadcaster waiting to write a heavy cheque for IPL is also busy wondering if not winning the rights for this high-profile T20 league would mean the end of the world. "That's not the case. It is true that IPL is a very successful property with multiple lucrative monetizing models but at the same time, the party that doesn't have the IPL can certainly go around the world shopping for everything else, simply because the competition will heavily diminish," adds the executive.
The cricket industry sees this impending scenario as the beginning of a heavily changing landscape from a broadcast perspective, one that could take a heavy toll on the International Cricket Council's (ICC) Future Tours Programme (FTP) going forward.
"In a scenario like this one, it is India - apropos of played at home or overseas - that will dictate global markets. It will be a headache for other boards to finalise their rights fee," say those tracking developments.
While a certain level of financial bleeding is an accepted norm in content acquisition business, a potential scenario like this could have serious adverse effects on the vendor going forward